论文标题
战争的衰落还是积极检查的结束？战争规模分布的变化分析1816-2007之间
Decline of war or end of positive check? Analysis of change in war size distribution between 1816-2007
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究检查了战争期间战斗的死亡风险是否有所下降，检验了“长期和平”假设。该分析依赖于扩大的战争数据集（Gleditsch，2004年），涵盖了1816 - 2007年之间国家内战争和州际战争。使用有关战争规模的未转换数据，估计不提供随着时间的推移战争下降的经验证据。但是，将全球人口的数据正常化确实表明了从1947年开始的战争可能下降。结果表明，尽管人口增长强劲并没有变得更加严重。
This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering intra- and inter-state wars between 1816-2007. Using untransformed data on war sizes, the estimates do not provide empirical evidence for a decline in war over time. However, normalising the data for global human population does illustrate a likely decline in war from 1947 onward. The results indicate that despite strong population growth wars have not become more severe.
