论文标题
谁抛弃公共汽车?
Whos Ditching the Bus?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文使用四个城市的停车级客运数据数据来了解2012年至2018年之间的全国性巴士乘车量的下降。在波特兰,迈阿密,明尼阿波利斯/St-Paul和亚特兰大,与乘客变更相关的本地特征进行了评估。 Poisson模型将乘客解释为横截面及其作为面板的变化。在控制频率,工作和人口的变化时,使用美国社区调查的数据研究了与当地社会人口统计学特征的相关性。使用纵向雇主霍姆霍尔德动态数据对邻里人口的变化对巴士乘车的影响。在某个时间点,非白人,无人驾驶和最重要的高中教育居民比例很高的社区是最有可能拥有高乘客的社区。随着时间的流逝,白人社区在所有四个城市中都失去了最多的乘客量。在迈阿密和亚特兰大,拥有高度接受大学教育且没有汽车的居民的地方也以更快的速度失去了乘车率。在明尼阿波利斯/St-Paul,受过大学教育的居民的比例与乘客的收益有关。即使控制城市内迁移,这些结果的迹象和意义仍然保持一致。尽管跨社区特征的公交乘车人数正在下降,但这些结果表明,乘车乘车量下降的根本原因必须主要影响白人巴士骑手的旅行行为。
This paper uses stop-level passenger count data in four cities to understand the nation-wide bus ridership decline between 2012 and 2018. The local characteristics associated with ridership change are evaluated in Portland, Miami, Minneapolis/St-Paul, and Atlanta. Poisson models explain ridership as a cross-section and the change thereof as a panel. While controlling for the change in frequency, jobs, and population, the correlation with local socio-demographic characteristics are investigated using data from the American Community Survey. The effect of changing neighborhood demographics on bus ridership are modeled using Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data. At a point in time, neighborhoods with high proportions of non-white, carless, and most significantly, high-school-educated residents are the most likely to have high ridership. Over time, white neighborhoods are losing the most ridership across all four cities. In Miami and Atlanta, places with high concentrations of residents with college education and without access to a car also lose ridership at a faster rate. In Minneapolis/St-Paul, the proportion of college-educated residents is linked to ridership gain. The sign and significance of these results remain consistent even when controlling for intra-urban migration. Although bus ridership is declining across neighborhood characteristics, these results suggest that the underlying cause of bus ridership decline must be primarily affecting the travel behavior of white bus riders.