论文标题
共形电子预测
Conformal e-prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
本文讨论了电子价值（共形电子预测）的共形预测。共形电子预测在概念上是更简单的，并且是在1990年代作为保形预测的前身开发的。当通过p值替换电子价值的结果出现保形预测时，它似乎在没有明显缺点的情况下具有重要的优势。本文从现代的角度系统地重新检查了共形预测与共形电子预测之间的关系。共形电子预测具有自己的优势，例如设计有条件的共形电子估计器的便捷性以及跨符号符合性电子预测者的保证有效性（而对于跨统一的预测指标的有效性只是一个经验事实，并且可以与过多的随机化破坏）。即使保形预测具有明显的优势，共形电子预测通常会或多或少地模仿这些优势。
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. This paper re-examines relations between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction systematically from a modern perspective. Conformal e-prediction has advantages of its own, such as the ease of designing conditional conformal e-predictors and the guaranteed validity of cross-conformal e-predictors (whereas for cross-conformal predictors validity is only an empirical fact and can be broken with excessive randomization). Even where conformal prediction has clear advantages, conformal e-prediction can often emulate those advantages, more or less successfully.
