论文标题
观察数据短缺对全球太阳活动预测准确性的影响
Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
论文作者
论文摘要
建立对太阳能活动的可靠预测是一个长期存在的问题，需要准确描述过去和当前的全球动态。然而，最近对磁场和地下流的天气观察结果相对可用。在本文中，我们介绍了简短观察数据系列对太阳周期预测准确性的影响的研究。该分析是使用应用于Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin Dynamo模型的年度黑子号时间序列进行的，并采用了集合Kalman Filter（ENKF）数据同化方法。通过顺序缩短用于预测目标周期的观察数据系列，并根据特定的标准评估预测准确性，对循环预测精度的测试进行了最后六个周期（从太阳周期19到24）进行的测试。根据分析，可以使用黑子数相对较短的时间序列进行可靠的活动预测。它表明，即使是两个可用观察的循环，我们也可以获得合理的预测。
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available relatively recently. In this paper, we present an investigation of effects of short observational data series on accuracy of solar cycle prediction. This analysis is performed using the annual sunspot number time-series applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model and employing the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method. The testing of the cycle prediction accuracy is performed for the last six cycles (from Solar Cycle 19 to 24) by sequentially shortening the observational data series that are used for prediction of a target cycle, and evaluating the prediction accuracy according to specified criteria. According to the analysis, reliable activity predictions can be made using relatively short time-series of the sunspot number. It demonstrated that even two cycles of available observations allow us to obtain reasonable forecasts.
