论文标题
使用贝叶斯方法重新评估镀耐甘醒异常
The gallium anomaly reassessed using a Bayesian approach
论文作者
论文摘要
从$^{37} $ ar和$^{51} $ cr校准来源通过电子 - neutrino通量校准了太阳能中的检测器和鼠尾草。通过计算中微子诱导的$^{71} $ ga nuclei to $^{71} $ ge nuclei的中微子诱导的转换数量，记录了测得的中微子通量的赤字。这种赤字被置于``镀甘式异常''，并以EV-MAS无菌中微子的形式引起了人们对超出标准模型物理的猜测。值得注意的是，这种异常已经违反了20多年的最终解决方案。在这里，我们通过将中微子实验视为重复的Bernoulli试验来重新评估该异常的统计意义，并改善相关的统计方法，这些试验考虑到检测到的$^{71} $ GE Nuclei的数量很小，因此呼吁采用贝叶斯统计方法。此外，我们考虑了实验的系统误差，它们的相关性，理论不确定性以及背景太阳能事件的数量，作为泊松分布的随机变量。为了与先前报道的异常统计显着性相比，我们将贝叶斯方法的后间隔转换为常见者方法的标准偏差$σ$。我们发现，对于所有所采用的理论方法，我们的方法将异常的统计意义降低了$ 0.8 \，σ$。这使凝固异常在统计上弱支持的概念。此外，我们的方法的含义远远超出了甘油异常，因为对于有限的记录事件，应重新评估许多罕见事件实验的结果。
The solar-neutrino detectors GALLEX and SAGE were calibrated by electron-neutrino flux from the $^{37}$Ar and $^{51}$Cr calibration sources. A deficit in the measured neutrino flux was recorded by counting the number of neutrino-induced conversions of the $^{71}$Ga nuclei to $^{71}$Ge nuclei. This deficit was coined ``gallium anomaly'' and it has lead to speculations about beyond-the-standard-model physics in the form of eV-mass sterile neutrinos. Notably, this anomaly has already defied final solution for more than 20 years. Here we reassess the statistical significance of this anomaly and improve the related statistical approaches by treating the neutrino experiments as repeated Bernoulli trials taking into account the fact that the number of the detected $^{71}$Ge nuclei is quite small, thus calling for a Bayesian statistical approach. In addition, we take into account the systematic errors of the experiments, their correlations, theoretical uncertainties and the number of background solar-neutrino events as a Poisson-distributed random variable. To compare with the previously reported statistical significances of the anomaly we convert the posterior intervals of our Bayesian approach to standard deviations $σ$ of the frequentist approach. We find that our approach reduces the statistical significance of the anomaly by $0.8\,σ$ for all the adopted theoretical approaches. This renders the gallium anomaly a statistically weakly supported concept. Furthermore, the implications of our approach go far beyond the gallium anomaly since the results of many rare-events experiments should be reassessed for their limited number of recorded events.
