论文标题

集体风险模型中的预测风险分析:历史频率和总体严重性之间的选择

Predictive Risk Analysis in Collective Risk Model: Choices between Historical Frequency and Aggregate Severity

论文作者

Oh, Rosy, Lee, Youngju, Zhu, Dan, Ahn, Jae Youn

论文摘要

保险中的典型风险分类程序包括由可观察的风险特征确定的先验风险分类,以及调整保费以反映保单持有人的索赔历史的后验风险分类。在使用完整的索赔历史记录数据中,在后验风险分类程序中是最佳的,即,给予高级估计器的差异很小,但某些保险部门仅使用索赔记录的部分信息来确定适当的费用。经典示例包括汽车保险保费取决于索赔频率数据,工人的薪酬保险基于总和。这种做法的动机是制定一个简化有效的后验风险分类程序,该程序是根据所涉及的保险单进行定制的。本文比较了两个简化的后验风险分类的相对效率,即基于频率与严重性,并提供了数学框架,以帮助从业者选择最合适的实践。

Typical risk classification procedure in insurance is consists of a priori risk classification determined by observable risk characteristics, and a posteriori risk classification where the premium is adjusted to reflect the policyholder's claim history. While using the full claim history data is optimal in a posteriori risk classification procedure, i.e. giving premium estimators with the minimal variances, some insurance sectors, however, only use partial information of the claim history for determining the appropriate premium to charge. Classical examples include that auto insurances premium are determined by the claim frequency data and workers' compensation insurances are based on the aggregate severity. The motivation for such practice is to have a simplified and efficient posteriori risk classification procedure which is customized to the involved insurance policy. This paper compares the relative efficiency of the two simplified posteriori risk classifications, i.e. based on frequency versus severity, and provides the mathematical framework to assist practitioners in choosing the most appropriate practice.

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