论文标题
分类比率的风险负载
Risk Loadings in Classification Ratemaking
论文作者
论文摘要
政策的风险溢价是纯保费和风险加载的总和。在分类比例过程中,通常使用广义线性模型来计算纯保费,并应用各种高级原则来推导风险负载。无论使用哪种高级原则,都应提前主观给出一些风险加载参数。为了克服这个主观问题并更合理,客观地计算风险溢价,我们提出了一种自上而下的方法来计算这些风险加载参数。首先,我们实施Bootstrap方法来计算投资组合的总风险溢价。然后,在限制下,投资组合的总风险溢价应等于每个政策的风险溢价之和,确定风险加载参数。在此过程中,除了使用通用线性模型外,还应用了三种分位数回归模型,即传统的分位数回归模型,完全参数分位数回归模型和具有系数函数的分位数回归模型。经验结果表明,本研究提出的方法计算出的风险溢价可以合理地区分不同风险类别的异质性。
The risk premium of a policy is the sum of the pure premium and the risk loading. In the classification ratemaking process, generalized linear models are usually used to calculate pure premiums, and various premium principles are applied to derive the risk loadings. No matter which premium principle is used, some risk loading parameters should be given in advance subjectively. To overcome this subjective problem and calculate the risk premium more reasonably and objectively, we propose a top-down method to calculate these risk loading parameters. First, we implement the bootstrap method to calculate the total risk premium of the portfolio. Then, under the constraint that the portfolio's total risk premium should equal the sum of the risk premiums of each policy, the risk loading parameters are determined. During this process, besides using generalized linear models, three kinds of quantile regression models are also applied, namely, traditional quantile regression model, fully parametric quantile regression model, and quantile regression model with coefficient functions. The empirical result shows that the risk premiums calculated by the method proposed in this study can reasonably differentiate the heterogeneity of different risk classes.