论文标题
使用van allen探针的贝叶斯推断准线性径向扩散参数
Bayesian inference of quasi-linear radial diffusion parameters using Van Allen Probes
论文作者
论文摘要
使用基于径向扩散理论的模型对磁层中的Van Allen辐射带进行了广泛的研究，该模型基于具有规定的内部和外边界条件的准线性方法。 1-D扩散模型需要了解扩散系数和电子损耗时间尺度的知识，它们通常以各种数量（例如空间（$ L $）坐标或地磁指数（例如，$ kp $））进行参数化。这些术语是经验得出的，而不是直接测量的，因此由于该过程的固有非线性和可变边界条件而不确定。在这项工作中，我们通过在贝叶斯框架中推断扩散和损耗项参数的值以及它们的不确定性来证明一种概率方法，在该框架中，使用Van Allen探针测量值获得了识别。我们的结果表明，与文献中使用的参数化相比，概率方法在统计学上可以提高模型的性能。
The Van Allen radiation belts in the magnetosphere have been extensively studied using models based on radial diffusion theory, which is based on a quasi-linear approach with prescribed inner and outer boundary conditions. The 1-d diffusion model requires the knowledge of a diffusion coefficient and an electron loss timescale, which are typically parameterized in terms of various quantities such as the spatial ($L$) coordinate or a geomagnetic index (for example, $Kp$). These terms are empirically derived, not directly measurable, and hence are not known precisely, due to the inherent non-linearity of the process and the variable boundary conditions. In this work, we demonstrate a probabilistic approach by inferring the values of the diffusion and loss term parameters, along with their uncertainty, in a Bayesian framework, where identification is obtained using the Van Allen Probe measurements. Our results show that the probabilistic approach statistically improves the performance of the model, compared to the parameterization employed in the literature.
