论文标题
来自2019-NCOV急性呼吸道疾病（COVID-19）动力学的早期数学模型的见解
Insights from early mathematical models of 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease (COVID-19) dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年12月，已经确定了一种新型的冠状病毒（SARS-COV-2），可引起人类急性呼吸道疾病。据报道，在中国大陆，武汉市据报道了这种疾病的爆发。该疾病也已出口到包括菲律宾在内的其他国家，但传播的水平仍处于控制之下（截至2020年2月8日）。为了描述和预测该疾病的动态，几个初步的数学模型由各种国际研究小组提出。在这里，讨论了可以从这些模型中获取的见解，尤其是作为设计控制流行病的策略的输入。还提出了有关如何防止疾病在当地环境中的传播（例如在大型社交聚会期间）的基于模型的策略。该模型表明，暴露时间是传播疾病的重要因素。基本的繁殖数量等于2和14天的感染期，感染的人在9小时内会感染其他人。假设曝光时间为18小时，该模型建议社交聚会的与会者应具有超过70％的效力的保护。
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The disease has also been exported to other countries, including the Philippines, but the level of spread is still under control (as of 08 February 2020). To describe and predict the dynamics of the disease, several preliminary mathematical models are formulated by various international study groups. Here, the insights that can be drawn from these models are discussed, especially as inputs for designing strategies to control the epidemics. Proposed model-based strategies on how to prevent the spread of the disease in local setting, such as during large social gatherings, are also presented. The model shows that the exposure time is a significant factor in spreading the disease. With a basic reproduction number equal to 2, and 14-day infectious period, an infected person staying more than 9 hours in the event could infect other people. Assuming the exposure time is 18 hours, the model recommends that attendees of the social gathering should have a protection with more than 70 percent effectiveness.
