论文标题
多元概率时间序列序列通过条件归一化流量预测
Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列预测通常是科学和工程问题的基础,并可以做出决策。随着数据集大小的不断增加,一种扩大预测的琐碎解决方案是假设相互作用时间序列之间的独立性。但是,建模统计依赖性可以提高准确性并实现对交互作用的分析。深度学习方法非常适合此问题,但是多元模型通常假设一个简单的参数分布,并且不扩展到高维度。在这项工作中,我们通过自回归深度学习模型对时间序列的多元时间动力学进行建模,其中数据分布由条件归一化流量表示。这种组合保留了自回归模型的力量,例如推断向未来的良好性能,流动的灵活性是一种通用的高维分布模型,同时又可以计算可行。我们表明,它在许多现实世界数据集上具有数千个相互作用的时间序列的标准指标的最新指标改进。
Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting time series. However, modeling statistical dependencies can improve accuracy and enable analysis of interaction effects. Deep learning methods are well suited for this problem, but multivariate models often assume a simple parametric distribution and do not scale to high dimensions. In this work we model the multivariate temporal dynamics of time series via an autoregressive deep learning model, where the data distribution is represented by a conditioned normalizing flow. This combination retains the power of autoregressive models, such as good performance in extrapolation into the future, with the flexibility of flows as a general purpose high-dimensional distribution model, while remaining computationally tractable. We show that it improves over the state-of-the-art for standard metrics on many real-world data sets with several thousand interacting time-series.