论文标题
内源性业务周期的同步
Synchronization of endogenous business cycles
论文作者
论文摘要
商业周期往往会在各个国家播放。但是，将共同归因于外源性冲击传播的标准模型难以产生与数据中一样高的合并水平。在本文中，我们考虑通过某种形式的非线性动力学来产生业务周期的模型 - 限制周期或混乱。这些模型会产生更强的合并，因为它们将冲击传播与内源动力学的同步结合在一起。特别是，我们研究了一个需求驱动的降低形式模型，在该模型中，业务周期从国家内的战略互补性出现，通过国际贸易联系使其振荡同步。我们开发了一种特征分类，该特征分类探讨了非线性动力学，冲击传播和网络结构之间的相互作用，并使用该理论来理解同步的机制。接下来，我们将模型校准到24个国家 /地区的数据，并表明只有通过将内源性业务周期与外源性冲击相结合的经验水平才能匹配。尽管使用风格化模型的局限性，但我们的结果支持以下假设：业务周期至少部分是由非线性动力学引起的。
Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider models that produce business cycles endogenously, through some form of non-linear dynamics -- limit cycles or chaos. These models generate stronger comovement, because they combine shock propagation with synchronization of endogenous dynamics. In particular, we study a demand-driven reduced-form model in which business cycles emerge from strategic complementarities within countries, synchronizing their oscillations through international trade linkages. We develop an eigendecomposition that explores the interplay between non-linear dynamics, shock propagation and network structure, and use this theory to understand the mechanisms of synchronization. Next, we calibrate the model to data on 24 countries and show that the empirical level of comovement can only be matched by combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks. Despite the limitations of using a stylized model, our results support the hypothesis that business cycles are at least in part caused by underlying non-linear dynamics.
