论文标题

中国武汉区的Covid-19的爆发评估

The Outbreak Evaluation of COVID-19 in Wuhan District of China

论文作者

Zhou, Yimin, Chen, Zuguo, Wu, Xiangdong, Tian, Zengwu, Cheng, Liang, Ye, Lingjian

论文摘要

2019年12月,在中国武汉发现了27例肺炎病毒肺炎病例,暂时以2019-NCOV命名为2019年NCOV,并于2020年2月11日正式被WHO正式命名。2019年12月11日,2019年12月和2020年1月,Covid-19在人群中大规模扩散,这给中国人的生活带来了可怕的灾难。在本文中,我们将首先分析病毒传播的特征和模式,并根据公共数据讨论流行病传播的关键影响因素和不可控制的因素。然后,可以将病毒传播建模并用于流行病发展的侵权和灭绝时期,从而为中国政府在流行病预防和经济生产的恢复方面提供理论支持。此外,本文证明了中国政府采取的预防方法的有效性,例如多层行政区域隔离。应对公共卫生紧急情况,世界非常重要和实践意义。

There were 27 novel coronavirus pneumonia cases found in Wuhan, China in December 2019, named as 2019-nCoV temporarily and COVID-19 formally by WHO on 11 February, 2020. In December 2019 and January 2020, COVID-19 has spread in large scale among the population, which brought terrible disaster to the life and property of the Chinese people. In this paper, we will first analyze the feature and pattern of the virus transmission, and discuss the key impact factors and uncontrollable factors of epidemic transmission based on public data. Then the virus transmission can be modelled and used for the inflexion and extinction period of epidemic development so as to provide theoretical support for the Chinese government in the decision-making of epidemic prevention and recovery of economic production. Further, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the prevention methods taken by the Chinese government such as multi-level administrative region isolation. It is of great importance and practical significance for the world to deal with public health emergencies.

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