论文标题
零售商可以出售多少? TMALL的销售预测
How Much Can A Retailer Sell? Sales Forecasting on Tmall
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列的预测是学术和行业的重要任务,可以应用于解决许多真正的预测问题,例如股票,供水和销售预测。在本文中,我们研究了零售商在TMALL上的销售预测的案例|世界领先的在线B2C平台。通过分析数据,我们有两个主要的观察结果,即在我们改变销售后不同的零售组和Tweedie分布之后,销售季节性(目标是预测)。根据我们的观察,我们设计了两种用于销售预测的机制,即季节性提取和分配转换。首先,我们采用傅立叶分解来自动为不同类别的零售商提取季节性,这些零售商可以作为任何已建立的回归算法的其他功能。其次,我们建议优化对数转换后的Tweedie损失销售额。我们将这两种机制应用于经典回归模型,即神经网络和梯度增强决策树,而TMALL数据集的实验结果表明,这两种机制都可以显着改善预测结果。
Time-series forecasting is an important task in both academic and industry, which can be applied to solve many real forecasting problems like stock, water-supply, and sales predictions. In this paper, we study the case of retailers' sales forecasting on Tmall|the world's leading online B2C platform. By analyzing the data, we have two main observations, i.e., sales seasonality after we group different groups of retails and a Tweedie distribution after we transform the sales (target to forecast). Based on our observations, we design two mechanisms for sales forecasting, i.e., seasonality extraction and distribution transformation. First, we adopt Fourier decomposition to automatically extract the seasonalities for different categories of retailers, which can further be used as additional features for any established regression algorithms. Second, we propose to optimize the Tweedie loss of sales after logarithmic transformations. We apply these two mechanisms to classic regression models, i.e., neural network and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and the experimental results on Tmall dataset show that both mechanisms can significantly improve the forecasting results.