论文标题
基于点处理的贝叶斯建模在法国地中海森林火灾的时空结构
Point-process based Bayesian modeling of space-time structures of forest fire occurrences in Mediterranean France
论文作者
论文摘要
由于气候变化和人类活动,预计野火在全球范围内变得更加频繁和极端,从而造成经济和生态灾难。通过随机建模有助于理解和量化有关发生强度的机制的随机建模,可以帮助进行预防措施和操作预测。在这里,我们为自1995年以来在法国地中海盆地观察到的野火点火点的点过程框架,我们使用贝叶斯框架中的每月时间分辨率拟合时空的logussian cox过程,并使用集成的嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)在贝叶斯框架中。人类活动是野火的主要直接原因,并通过在我们的方法中通过许多与土地利用协变量(城市化,道路网络)相关的适当定义的代理来间接衡量,我们进一步整合了气候和环境条件的协变量,以解释野火事件。我们在年度分辨率下包括具有Matérn协方差的空间随机效应和时间自动降低。解决了两个主要的方法论挑战:首先,通过使用GIS软件和Kriging Techniques的计算机密集型预处理步骤来实现数据中数据中的多尺度结构;其次,考虑到野火的发生结构,基于INLA具有高维反应矢量和潜在模型的估计是通过年度内采样来促进的。
Due to climate change and human activity, wildfires are expected to become more frequent and extreme worldwide, causing economic and ecological disasters. The deployment of preventive measures and operational forecasts can be aided by stochastic modeling that helps to understand and quantify the mechanisms governing the occurrence intensity. We here develop a point process framework for wildfire ignition points observed in the French Mediterranean basin since 1995, and we fit a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process with monthly temporal resolution in a Bayesian framework using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Human activity is the main direct cause of wildfires and is indirectly measured through a number of appropriately defined proxies related to land-use covariates (urbanization, road network) in our approach, and we further integrate covariates of climatic and environmental conditions to explain wildfire occurrences. We include spatial random effects with Matérn covariance and temporal autoregression at yearly resolution. Two major methodological challenges are tackled: first, handling and unifying multi-scale structures in data is achieved through computer-intensive preprocessing steps with GIS software and kriging techniques; second, INLA-based estimation with high-dimensional response vectors and latent models is facilitated through intra-year subsampling, taking into account the occurrence structure of wildfires.