论文标题
分位数正则化:迈向回归模型的隐式校准
Quantile Regularization: Towards Implicit Calibration of Regression Models
论文作者
论文摘要
最近的作品表明,大多数深度学习模型通常经常校准,即,它们可能会产生错误的预测。因此,希望拥有可靠的预测不确定性估计值的模型。最近已经提出了几种方法来校准分类模型。但是,校准回归模型的工作相对较少。我们提出了一种基于新的分位数正常化程序校准回归模型的方法,该新细分位正则定义为两个CDF之间的累积KL差异。与大多数现有的校准回归模型的方法不同,这些方法基于模型输出的事后处理并需要额外的数据集,我们的方法可以以端到端方式训练,而无需额外的数据集。提出的正规器可用于任何培训目标进行回归。我们还表明,诸如等渗校准之类的事后校准方法有时会复合误解,而我们的方法始终如一地提供更好的校准。我们提供的经验结果表明,提议的分位数正常化程序可显着改善使用方法(例如辍学VI和Deep Ensembles)训练的回归模型的校准。
Recent works have shown that most deep learning models are often poorly calibrated, i.e., they may produce overconfident predictions that are wrong. It is therefore desirable to have models that produce predictive uncertainty estimates that are reliable. Several approaches have been proposed recently to calibrate classification models. However, there is relatively little work on calibrating regression models. We present a method for calibrating regression models based on a novel quantile regularizer defined as the cumulative KL divergence between two CDFs. Unlike most of the existing approaches for calibrating regression models, which are based on post-hoc processing of the model's output and require an additional dataset, our method is trainable in an end-to-end fashion without requiring an additional dataset. The proposed regularizer can be used with any training objective for regression. We also show that post-hoc calibration methods like Isotonic Calibration sometimes compound miscalibration whereas our method provides consistently better calibrations. We provide empirical results demonstrating that the proposed quantile regularizer significantly improves calibration for regression models trained using approaches, such as Dropout VI and Deep Ensembles.