论文标题
从基于方案的地震危险到基于方案的滑坡危险：通过统计模拟快进到未来
From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: fast-forwarding to the future via statistical simulations
论文作者
论文摘要
全球大多数地震活动区域都存在地面运动场景。它们本质上对应于给定的地震返回时间的摇摆水平图，这被用作未来地面位移受到威胁的可能区域的参考。在地震积极区域中，山体滑坡受到地面运动的密切控制，人们期望滑坡易感图应随着地面运动模式的变化而变化。但是，到目前为止，基于统计的滑坡易感性评估主要被用作时间不变。换句话说，绝大多数统计模型不包括在未来的LandSlide场景中主要触发的时间效应。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种旨在填补这一空白的方法，将地震学界的当前实践弥合到了地貌和统计上的实践。更具体地说，我们选择了与1994年Northridge地震相对应的地震诱导的洋滑坡库存，并建立了二项式家族的贝叶斯通用添加剂模型，其中包含常见的形态学和主题协变量以及北龙地震产生的峰值地面加速度。估计每个模型组件后，我们为研究区域的217个可能的地面运动方案中的每一个都进行了1000个模拟。 从每批1000个模拟中，我们估计了平均值和95 \％可靠的间隔，以代表特定地震场景下的平均敏感性模式以及其不确定性水平。由于每个地震场景都有特定的回程，因此我们的模拟允许将时间维度纳入任何敏感性模型，因此将结果推向了压倒性危险的定义。
Ground motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from future ground displacements. Being landslides in seismically actively regions closely controlled by the ground motion, one would expect that landslide susceptibility maps should change as the ground motion patterns change in space and time. However, so far, statistically-based landslide susceptibility assessments have primarily been used as time-invariant.In other words, the vast majority of the statistical models does not include the temporal effect of the main trigger in future landslide scenarios. In this work, we present an approach aimed at filling this gap, bridging current practices in the seismological community to those in the geomorphological and statistical ones. More specifically, we select an earthquake-induced landslide inventory corresponding to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and build a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model of the binomial family, featuring common morphometric and thematic covariates as well as the Peak Ground Acceleration generated by the Northridge earthquake. Once each model component has been estimated, we have run 1000 simulations for each of the 217 possible ground motion scenarios for the study area. From each batch of 1000 simulations, we have estimated the mean and 95\% Credible Interval to represent the mean susceptibility pattern under a specific earthquake scenario, together with its uncertainty level. Because each earthquake scenario has a specific return time, our simulations allow to incorporate the temporal dimension into any susceptibility model, therefore driving the results toward the definition of landslide hazard.
