论文标题
在印度，州和工会领土出生时性别比例的概率预测以及失踪的女性出生
Probabilistic Projection of the Sex Ratio at Birth and Missing Female Births by State and Union Territory in India
论文作者
论文摘要
自1970年代以来，印度出生时的性别比（SRB）一直不平衡。先前的研究表明，直到2016年，印度的SRB都有很大的差异。作为人口最多的国家之一，鉴于其巨大的区域异质性，至关重要的是，对于人口投影和政策规划的目的，为印度的SRB提供概率预测。在本文中，我们实施了贝叶斯分层时间序列模型，以通过州在印度投射SRB。我们在2017年至2030年为印度的29个州和工会领土（UTS）生成了SRB概率预测，并在21个州/UTS中提供了带有样本注册系统数据的州/UT。我们的分析考虑了有助于性堕胎的两个特定因素，并在出生时产生的性失衡：儿子的偏好和生育能力的强度。我们预计，对女性出生赤字的最大贡献是在北方邦，从2017年到2030年，累积的女性出生累计预计为2.0（95％可靠的间隔[1.9; 2.2]）百万。2017-2030年，印度的女性出生缺陷预计为6.8 [6.6 [6.6 [6.6 [6.6; 7.0]百万。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown a great variation in the SRB across geographic locations in India till 2016. As one of the most populous countries and in view of its great regional heterogeneity, it is crucial to produce probabilistic projections for the SRB in India at state level for the purpose of population projection and policy planning. In this paper, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project SRB in India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results in 21 States/UTs with data from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion and resulting sex imbalances at birth: intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. We project that the largest contribution to female births deficits is in Uttar Pradesh, with cumulative number of missing female births projected to be 2.0 (95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. The total female birth deficits during 2017-2030 for the whole India is projected to be 6.8 [6.6; 7.0] million.
