论文标题
在德国共同案件中，年轻成年人和年长青少年比例的时间上升：对社会疏远实践的依从性较小的证据？
Temporal rise in the proportion of younger adults and older adolescents among COVID-19 cases in Germany: evidence of lesser adherence to social distancing practices?
论文作者
论文摘要
背景：不同年龄段在传播不同国家的SARS-COV-2流行病中的作用存在不确定性。方法：我们使用了科赫研究所有关德国Covid-19案件的数据。为了最大程度地减少医疗保健寻求行为和测试实践的影响，我们将随后的5岁年龄段包括在分析中：10-14Y至45-49Y。对于每个年龄段的G，我们考虑了G年龄g的个体的比例PL（g）在所有检测到的10-49Y年龄在2020年，2020年（较晚时期）的病例中，以及相应的PE（g）比例（g）在10-11，2020（早期）和相对风险RR（G）= PL（G）= PL（G）/PE（G）。对于每对G1，G2，与RR（G2）相比，RR（G1）的值更高的值（G2）被解释为G1的SARS-COV-2的人口相对增加，而G2与早期的G2相比。 Results: The relative risk was highest for individuals aged 20-24y (RR=1.4(95% CI (1.27,1.55))), followed by individuals aged 15-19y (RR=1.14(0.99,1.32)), aged 30-34y (RR= 1.07(0.99,1.16)), aged 25-29y (RR= 1.06（0.98,1.15）），年龄35-39Y（RR = 0.95（0.87,1.03）），年龄40-44Y（RR = 0.9（0.83,0.98）），年龄为45-49Y（45-49Y） （RR = 0.78（0.64,0.95））。结论：在Covid-19案件中，在15-34Y年龄（尤其是20-24岁）年龄的人（尤其是年龄在20-24岁之间）的患病率的相对增加，不太可能通过与35-49岁或10-14Y年龄在35-49岁或10-14Y年龄段的人中相比，寻求医疗服务的可能性的增加来解释。德国人口的感染。与其他年龄段相比，这种增加可能反映了15-34岁（尤其是20-24岁）的个体的混合升高，这可能是由于对社会疏远实践的依从性较小。
Background: There is uncertainty about the role of different age groups in propagating the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in different countries. Methods: We used the Koch Institute data on COVID-19 cases in Germany. To minimize the effect of changes in healthcare seeking behavior and testing practices, we included the following 5-year age groups in the analyses: 10-14y through 45-49y. For each age group g, we considered the proportion PL(g) of individuals in age group g among all detected cases aged 10-49y during weeks 13-14, 2020 (later period), as well as corresponding proportion PE(g) for weeks 10-11, 2020 (early period), and the relative risk RR(g)=PL(g)/PE(g). For each pair of age groups g1,g2, a higher value of RR(g1) compared to RR(g2) is interpreted as the relative increase in the population incidence of SARS-Cov-2 for g1 compared to g2 for the later vs. early period. Results: The relative risk was highest for individuals aged 20-24y (RR=1.4(95% CI (1.27,1.55))), followed by individuals aged 15-19y (RR=1.14(0.99,1.32)), aged 30-34y (RR= 1.07(0.99,1.16)), aged 25-29y (RR= 1.06(0.98,1.15)), aged 35-39y (RR=0.95(0.87,1.03)), aged 40-44y (RR=0.9(0.83,0.98)), aged 45-49y (RR=0.83(0.77,0.89)) and aged 10-14y (RR=0.78(0.64,0.95)). Conclusions: The observed relative increase with time in the prevalence of individuals aged 15-34y (particularly those aged 20-24y) among COVID-19 cases is unlikely to be explained by increases in the likelihood of seeking medical care/being tested for individuals in those age groups compared to individuals aged 35-49y or 10-14y, suggesting an actual increase in the prevalence of individuals aged 15-34y among SARS-CoV-2 infections in the German population. That increase likely reflects elevated mixing among individuals aged 15-34y (particularly those aged 20-24y) compared to other age groups, possibly due to lesser adherence to social distancing practices.
