论文标题
辛格和adhikari对印度的COVID-19分析的批评
A critique of the Covid-19 analysis for India by Singh and Adhikari
论文作者
论文摘要
在最近的一篇论文（Arxiv：2003.12055）中，辛格和阿迪卡里（Singh and Adhikari）对流行病学数学模型进行了分析，他们认为印度需要在印度含有49美元的$ DAY锁定，以使印度含有大流行。我们断言，作为具有既定假设的模型研究，本文中提供的分析是完全有效的，但是，与实际数据和从模型的预测尝试的任何认真比较都是有问题的。本文的要点是令人信服地确定这一主张，同时提出警告，即对这种数学模型的结果和分析不应以面值进行，并且需要在政策制定者的情况下谨慎使用。
In a recent paper (arXiv:2003.12055), Singh and Adhikari present results of an analysis of a mathematical model of epidemiology based on which they argue that a $49$ day lockdown is required in India for containing the pandemic in India. We assert that as a model study with the stated assumptions, the analysis presented in the paper is perfectly valid, however, any serious comparison with real data and attempts at prediction from the model are highly problematic. The main point of the present paper is to convincingly establish this assertion while providing a warning that the results and analysis of such mathematical models should not be taken at face value and need to be used with great caution by policy makers.
