论文标题
动量管理流行病和贝塞尔功能
Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions
论文作者
论文摘要
从检测到的感染总数的功率定律开始，我们提出了描述动量流行管理影响的微分方程。我们的2阶段公式与许多国家的Covid-19感染总数的曲线非常吻合；第一阶段由Bessel函数描述。假设管理层稳定，它为饱和度提供了预测。我们讨论奥地利，巴西，德国，日本，印度，以色列，意大利，荷兰，瑞典，瑞士，英国和美国，包括对第二波的分析。
Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the Covid-19 infections in many countries; the first phase is described by Bessel functions. It provides projections for the saturation, assuming that the management is steady. We discuss Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA, including some analysis of the second waves.
