论文标题
公共卫生政策：无症状病毒携带者的Covid-19-19
Public Health Policy: COVID-19 Epidemic and SEIR Model with Asymptomatic Viral Carriers
论文作者
论文摘要
我们根据SEIRA模型（包括无症状传播的SEIR模型）来衡量不同公共卫生法规对Covid-19的传播的影响。累积确认的病例和死亡表明与无症状率的值非线性正相关。基于该模型，我们分析了三种类型的公共卫生政策对Covid-19的抑制作用，即隔离实验室确认的案件，一般的个人保护和隔离（锁定）。模拟得出的结论是，隔离对无症状病毒载体的影响有限。当他们的参与者百分比相同时，一般的个人保护和隔离效果相似。当无症状，轻度症状和被忽视的患者的总比例为40％时，仅取决于隔离政策，可能会导致75％的感染，而效率为80％。最终，我们在空中传播流行病之前和期间提供了七项公共卫生干预措施（Covid-19）。
We measure the effect of different public health regulations to the spread of COVID-19, based on a SEIRA model -- a SEIR model including asymptomatic transmissions. The cumulative confirmed cases and death show nonlinear positive relationship with the value of asymptomatic rate. Based on this model, we analyze the inhibit effects to COVID-19 of three types of public health policies, i.e. isolation of laboratory confirmed cases, general personal protection and quarantine (lock-down). The simulations conclude that the isolation display limited effects to the asymptomatic viral carriers. The general personal protection and quarantine perform similar effects when the their percentages of participants are same. When the total proportion of asymptomatic, mild symptomatic and neglected patients is 40%, only depends on isolation policy may lead to an additional 75% infections, compared with general personal protection or quarantine with an efficiency 80%. At end, we provide seven recommendations of public health intervention before and during an aerial transmitted epidemic (COVID-19).
