论文标题
“留在附近或被检查”：COVID-19锁定退出策略
"Stay Nearby or Get Checked": A Covid-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy
论文作者
论文摘要
本文重新利用了网络理论的经典见解，即长距离连接将疾病传播推向控制第二波Covid-19的策略。我们模拟了一种场景，其中首先将锁定施加在人口上，然后在长距离传输最少的情况下部分解除。模拟的传播模式类似于Covid-19跨国，地区和省的当代分布，提供了一些模型验证。结果表明，提出的策略可能会显着平坦第二波。我们还发现，锁骨后爆发保持局部时间更长，有助于地理遏制。公共政策可能会通过大量专注于医疗测试和移动性跟踪交通和运输的方式来针对长期纽带。可以将此政策传达给公众，以简单合理的原则：留在附近或被检查。
This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated spreading patterns resemble contemporary distributions of Covid-19 across nations, regions, and provinces, providing some model validation. Results suggest that the proposed strategy may significantly flatten a second wave. We also find that post-lockdown flare-ups remain local longer, aiding geographical containment. Public policy may target long ties by heavily focusing medical testing and mobility tracking efforts on traffic and transport. This policy can be communicated to the general public as a simple and reasonable principle: Stay nearby or get checked.
