论文标题
COVID-19
Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Antiepidemic Policies and Global Situation Assessment of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
通过中国的两层接触模型和数据，我们分析了COVID-19的三种类型的抗抑郁措施的成本效益：常规的流行病学控制，局部社会互动控制和城市间旅行限制。我们发现：1）与国家一级的其他两个相比，与其他两个人相比，中心际旅行限制的影响最小甚至是负面影响； 2）到达转折点的时间独立于当前案件数量，仅与执行流行病学控制和社会互动控制措施的严格性有关； 3）在早期的强大执法是唯一最大程度地提高抗考试效果和成本效益的机会； 4）社会互动措施的中等程度是最糟糕的选择。随后，我们根据他们的控制措施将国家/地区分为四组，并为每个组提供情况评估和政策建议。
With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and provide situation assessment and policy suggestions for each group.
