论文标题
从冠状病毒锁定中过渡：基于区域的社会距离的框架
Transitioning out of the Coronavirus Lockdown: A Framework for Zone-Based Social Distancing
论文作者
论文摘要
面对大流行风险升高，是否有必要完全锁定人口，施加极端的社会疏远？规范的流行病学模型表明，尽管有身体上孤立的人的社会和人为成本很高，但这可能一次是不可避免的。另外，人们可以撤退到社会或经济定义的防御区，其区域内的相互作用比整个区域都多。从完全锁定开始，区域可以促进负责重新开放教育，政府和公司，因为良好的结构可以极大地减慢疾病的扩散。本文提供了一个框架，以理解和评估区域在社会疏远方面的有效性。
In the face of elevated pandemic risk, is it necessary to completely lock down the population, imposing extreme social distancing? Canonical epidemiological models suggest this may be unavoidable for months at a time, despite the heavy social and human cost of physically isolating people. Alternatively, people could retreat into socially or economically defined defensive zones, with more interactions inside their zone than across zones. Starting from a complete lockdown, zones could facilitate responsible reopening of education, government, and firms, as a well-implemented structure can dramatically slow the diffusion of the disease. This paper provides a framework for understanding and evaluating the effectiveness of zones for social distancing.
