论文标题
在具有波动的动力模型中的扭转振荡，并可能对太阳周期的热震预测
Torsional Oscillations in Dynamo Models with Fluctuations and Potential for Helioseismic Predictions of the Solar Cycles
论文作者
论文摘要
使用非线性平均场太阳能发电机模型，我们研究了“扩展”迁移层流的幅度（``扭转振荡''）和磁性循环之间的关系，并研究属性在地下层中的扭转振荡是否可以提供有关未来太阳能循环的信息。我们考虑两种类型的发电机模型：具有定期变化的α效应的模型，以及具有随机波动的模型，模拟了``long'-'' - 和“短期内存”类型的磁性活性变化。发现扭转振荡参数（例如区域加速度）与随后的周期的大小相关，时间滞后为11 - 20年。相关性和时置参数的符号可以取决于扭转振荡的深度和纬度以及发电机周期的长期（`centennial'）变化的特性。在对流区底部高纬度处的纬向加速度发现最强的相关性。该模型的结果表明，对扭转振荡的热震观测可能有助于先进的太阳能循环，即前方的一两个黑子周期。
Using a nonlinear mean-field solar dynamo model, we study relationships between the amplitude of the `extended' mode of migrating zonal flows (`torsional oscillations') and magnetic cycles, and investigate whether properties the torsional oscillations in subsurface layers and in the deep convection zone can provide information about the future solar cycles. We consider two types of dynamo models: models with regular variations of the alpha-effect, and models with stochastic fluctuations, simulating `long'- and 'short-memory' types of magnetic activity variations. It is found that torsional oscillation parameters, such the zonal acceleration, show a considerable correlation with the magnitude of the subsequent cycles with a time lag of 11-20 yr. The sign of the correlation and the time-lag parameters can depend on the depth and latitude of the torsional oscillations as well as on the properties of long-term (`centennial') variations of the dynamo cycles. The strongest correlations are found for the zonal acceleration at high latitudes at the base of the convection zone. The model results demonstrate that helioseismic observations of the torsional oscillations can be useful for advanced prediction of the solar cycles, one-two sunspot cycles ahead.
