论文标题
南极冰盖中关键过渡的预警信号 - 一种数据驱动的时空转化点工具
An Early Warning Sign of Critical Transition in The Antarctic Ice Sheet -- A Data Driven Tool for Spatiotemporal Tipping Point
论文作者
论文摘要
我们最近开发的工具（称为定向亲和力细分）最初是为流体系统中相干集的数据驱动而设计的。在这里，我们解释说，从遥感数据可以看出，它也可以用来指示冰架中关键过渡的预警信号。我们应用有向光谱聚类方法，包括不对称亲和力矩阵和相关的有向图拉普拉斯式，以重新处理Larsen C冰架的冰速度数据和遥感卫星图像。我们的工具使对历史事件的模拟预测，从历史数据，故障线导致了关键过渡，导致Larsen C冰架裂纹的破裂，这导致了A68冰山。使用过去的数据来预测事件的方法进行基准测试，这些事件有时也称为铸造后，类似于对未来的预测。我们的方法表明实际发生之前的几个月危机。
Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation was originally designed for data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote sensing data. We apply a directed spectral clustering methodology, including an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian, to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our tool has enabled the simulated prediction of historical events from historical data, fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the break up of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A68 iceberg. Such benchmarking of methods using data from the past to forecast events that are now also in the past is sometimes called post-casting, analogous to forecasting into the future. Our method indicated the coming crisis months before the actual occurrence.
