论文标题
代理水平的大流行模拟（ALP）用于分析锁定措施的效果
Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) for Analyzing Effects of Lockdown Measures
论文作者
论文摘要
本文开发了一种代理级的模拟模型，称为阿尔卑斯山，用于模拟传染病在密闭社区中的传播。传播的机制是指代理接触，使用报道的Corona Covid-19大流行的参数。阿尔卑斯山模拟的主要目的是分析预防措施的影响（强加和解除锁定规范）对感染，死亡和康复率的效果。模型的假设和选择代表了竞争性要求与实时推断有效的竞争要求之间的平衡。该模型通过实施和维持限制性措施来量化减少伤亡的收益。
This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for Corona COVID-19 pandemic. The main goal of the ALPS simulation is analyze effects of preventive measures -- imposition and lifting of lockdown norms -- on the rates of infections, fatalities and recoveries. The model assumptions and choices represent a balance between competing demands of being realistic and being efficient for real-time inferences. The model provides quantification of gains in reducing casualties by imposition and maintenance of restrictive measures in place.
