论文标题
使用贝叶斯顺序实验设计嘈杂的自适应组测试
Noisy Adaptive Group Testing using Bayesian Sequential Experimental Design
论文作者
论文摘要
当疾病的感染患病率较低时,多夫曼(Dorfman)80年前表明,测试人群比单独测试人更有效。本文我们的目标是提出可以在嘈杂的设置(可以误认为可以误认为)进行适应性决定的新组测试算法(查看过去的结果)下一步测试哪些组,并将目标收敛到良好的检测,并尽可能少地进行测试。我们将这个问题作为贝叶斯顺序实验设计问题。考虑到到目前为止进行的测试,使用$ N $患者的感染状态向量的后验分布,我们试图形成具有最大效用的组。我们考虑了公用事业,例如共同信息,但也与测试相关的数量,例如测试的ROC曲线AUC。实际上,$ \ {0,1 \}^n $上的后验分布是由顺序的蒙特卡洛(SMC)采样器近似的,并且用贪婪优化器最大化的实用程序。我们的程序在模拟中显示了与自适应和非适应性基准的显着改善,并且在疾病患病率较低时比单个测试效率要高得多。此外,我们从经验上表明,循环信念传播(LBP)被广泛认为是SOTA解码器,以决定是否感染了一个人是否被感染了先前的测试,可能是不可靠的,并且表现出振荡行为。我们的SMC解码器更可靠,可以提高其他组测试算法的性能。
When the infection prevalence of a disease is low, Dorfman showed 80 years ago that testing groups of people can prove more efficient than testing people individually. Our goal in this paper is to propose new group testing algorithms that can operate in a noisy setting (tests can be mistaken) to decide adaptively (looking at past results) which groups to test next, with the goal to converge to a good detection, as quickly, and with as few tests as possible. We cast this problem as a Bayesian sequential experimental design problem. Using the posterior distribution of infection status vectors for $n$ patients, given observed tests carried out so far, we seek to form groups that have a maximal utility. We consider utilities such as mutual information, but also quantities that have a more direct relevance to testing, such as the AUC of the ROC curve of the test. Practically, the posterior distributions on $\{0,1\}^n$ are approximated by sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers and the utility maximized by a greedy optimizer. Our procedures show in simulations significant improvements over both adaptive and non-adaptive baselines, and are far more efficient than individual tests when disease prevalence is low. Additionally, we show empirically that loopy belief propagation (LBP), widely regarded as the SoTA decoder to decide whether an individual is infected or not given previous tests, can be unreliable and exhibit oscillatory behavior. Our SMC decoder is more reliable, and can improve the performance of other group testing algorithms.