论文标题
如何恢复正常：通过移动设备通过接近感测到Covid-19的快速而全面的接触跟踪
How to Return to Normalcy: Fast and Comprehensive Contact Tracing of COVID-19 through Proximity Sensing Using Mobile Devices
论文作者
论文摘要
我们概述了使用移动设备基于接近感测的接触追踪策略。我们讨论一个理想的系统应该是什么样子，以及它可以做什么。我们表明，如果采用足够广泛的采用，这种接触追踪策略可以使Covid-19完全控制，结束社会疏远的需要，并使社会完全正常。我们还回顾了当前一代邻近感应技术所面临的一些挑战，包括手机使用的蓝牙低能，并考虑临时和长期解决方案。我们的主要贡献是，我们推理了为什么这种接触追踪策略可能会实现恢复全正常状态的既定目标。使用概率模型，我们表明实现既定目标不是必要的普遍采用，因此有一些例外的空间。但是，根据疾病参数，采用率必须很高，例如，高于$ 95 \％$。由于对疾病监测更加警惕，以便更早发现轻度病例，因此该数字可能会降至90美元\％$。结果要求部署努力由州或联邦一级的公共当局领导，以便可以达到所需的采用率，并且跟踪覆盖范围足够广泛，足以与疾病控制相关。
We outline a contact-tracing strategy based on proximity sensing using mobile devices. We discuss what an ideal system should look like and what it can do. We show that, when adopted sufficiently broadly, such a contact-tracing strategy can bring COVID-19 under complete control, end the need of social distancing, and return the society to full normalcy. We also review some of the challenges faced by the current generation of proximity-sensing technologies, including Bluetooth Low Energy used by phones, and consider both interim and longer-term solutions. Our main contribution is that we reason through why such a contact-tracing strategy is likely to achieve the stated goal of returning to full normalcy. Using probabilistic models, we show that universal adoption is not necessary to achieve the stated goal, thus there is some room for exceptions; however, the adoption rate needs to be very high, e.g., above $95\%$ depending on the disease parameters. With more vigilance in disease surveillance to detect mild cases earlier, the number may be brought down to about $90\%$. The results call for deployment effort to be led by public authorities at the state or federal level so that the required adoption rate can be reached and the tracing coverage is wide enough to be relevant for disease control.
