论文标题
一种预测研究中出色增长的新方法
A Novel Approach to Predicting Exceptional Growth in Research
论文作者
论文摘要
研究中出色或令人惊讶的增长的预测是根源和实际解决方案很少的问题。在这项研究中，我们开发并验证了一种新型方法来预测高度特定的研究社区的增长。每个研究社区都由一群论文代表。测试了多个指标，并创建了一个综合指标，可以预测哪些研究社区将在未来三年内经历出色的增长。使用数十万个社区级别的预测测试了该预测变量的准确性，并发现使用科学博览会（IARPA）的远见卓识（IARPA）在科学领域的九个主要领域中的六个中建立的性能基准。此外，计算技术领域中的11个学科中的十个学科都符合基准。给出并评估具体的详细预测示例，并提供对预测方法的批判性评估。
The prediction of exceptional or surprising growth in research is an issue with deep roots and few practical solutions. In this study we develop and validate a novel approach to forecasting growth in highly specific research communities. Each research community is represented by a cluster of papers. Multiple indicators were tested, and a composite indicator was created that predicts which research communities will experience exceptional growth over the next three years. The accuracy of this predictor was tested using hundreds of thousands of community-level forecasts and was found to exceed the performance benchmarks established in Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity's (IARPA) Foresight Using Scientific Exposition (FUSE) program in six of nine major fields in science. Furthermore, ten of eleven disciplines within the Computing Technologies field met the benchmarks. Specific detailed forecast examples are given and evaluated, and a critical evaluation of the forecasting approach is also provided.
