论文标题

最大限度地提高急性限制的COVID-19测试的好处

Maximising the Benefits of an Acutely Limited Number of COVID-19 Tests

论文作者

Jonnerby, Jakob, Lazos, Philip, Lock, Edwin, Marmolejo-Cossío, Francisco, Ramsey, C. Bronk, Shukla, Meghana, Sridhar, Divya

论文摘要

我们提出了一种新颖的测试和遏制策略,以遏制SARS-COV2的传播,同时允许大部分人口恢复社会和经济活动。我们的方法认识到许多国家在许多国家受到严格限制的测试能力。在这种情况下,我们表明,在大流行期间使用这种有限数量的测试的最佳方法可以简洁地作为分配问题。我们的问题表述考虑了人口的异质性,并使用合并的测试来识别和隔离个人,同时优先考虑较高风险传播疾病的主要工人和个人。为了证明我们的测试和遏制机制的功效,我们使用基于网络的SIR模型进行仿真。我们的模拟表明,与未实施未实施干预措施的情况相比,将我们的机制应用于每天仅$ 16 $测试的人口的人口,每天仅16美元的测试将受感染者的峰值数量减少约20美元。

We propose a novel testing and containment strategy in order to contain the spread of SARS-CoV2 while permitting large parts of the population to resume social and economic activity. Our approach recognises the fact that testing capacities are severely constrained in many countries. In this setting, we show that finding the best way to utilise this limited number of tests during a pandemic can be formulated concisely as an allocation problem. Our problem formulation takes into account the heterogeneity of the population and uses pooled testing to identify and isolate individuals while prioritising key workers and individuals with a higher risk of spreading the disease. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of our testing and containment mechanism, we perform simulations using a network-based SIR model. Our simulations indicate that applying our mechanism on a population of $100,000$ individuals with only $16$ tests per day reduces the peak number of infected individuals by approximately $20\%$, when compared to the scenario where no intervention is implemented.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源