论文标题
基于综合政治经济体系的预测模型：美国总统选举的案例
Prediction Model Based on Integrated Political Economy System: The Case of US Presidential Election
论文作者
论文摘要
本文从系统的角度研究了政治和经济体系的综合系统，以探讨它们之间的复杂相互作用，并特别分析了美国总统大选预测的案例。基于经济数据构建的工业结构的签名关联网络，我们的框架通过称为Potts模型的动力学模型模拟选举期间意见的扩散和演变。值得注意的是，我们为美国总统大选提出了一个简单有效的预测模型，同时激发了一种建模经济结构的新方法。调查结果还强调了经济结构与政治态度之间的密切关系。此外，在网络和经济方面的案例分析证明了特定时期的政治趋势与工业结构之间的特定特征以及与政治和经济学理论一致的趋势和工业结构之间的相互作用。
This paper studies an integrated system of political and economic systems from a systematic perspective to explore the complex interaction between them, and specially analyzes the case of the US presidential election forecasting. Based on the signed association networks of industrial structure constructed by economic data, our framework simulates the diffusion and evolution of opinions during the election through a kinetic model called the Potts Model. Remarkably, we propose a simple and efficient prediction model for the US presidential election, and meanwhile inspire a new way to model the economic structure. Findings also highlight the close relationship between economic structure and political attitude. Furthermore, the case analysis in terms of network and economy demonstrates the specific features and the interaction between political tendency and industrial structure in a particular period, which is consistent with theories in politics and economics.
