论文标题
武装冲突的缩放理论雪崩
A scaling theory of armed conflict avalanches
论文作者
论文摘要
武装冲突数据显示在致命和地理范围等社会和物理特性中的缩放和普遍动态。我们提出了一个随机分支的武装冲突模型，该模型以与数据一致的方式将多个属性相互关联。该模型结合了一个分形晶格，冲突扩散，统一的动态驱动冲突增长以及调节当地冲突强度的区域毒力。我们用来开发最小模型的缩放和通用动力学的定量限制更普遍地用作武装冲突动态其他模型的一组约束。我们展示了类似于热力学的方法如何赋予机理直觉并统一多个冲突特性，从而深入了解因果关系，预测和干预时机。
Armed conflict data display scaling and universal dynamics in both social and physical properties like fatalities and geographic extent. We propose a randomly branching, armed-conflict model that relates multiple properties to one another in a way consistent with data. The model incorporates a fractal lattice on which conflict spreads, uniform dynamics driving conflict growth, and regional virulence that modulates local conflict intensity. The quantitative constraints on scaling and universal dynamics we use to develop our minimal model serve more generally as a set of constraints for other models for armed conflict dynamics. We show how this approach akin to thermodynamics imparts mechanistic intuition and unifies multiple conflict properties, giving insight into causation, prediction, and intervention timing.
