论文标题
北极海中风和波浪极端的长期和季节性变化
Long-term and seasonal variability of wind and wave extremes in the Arctic Ocean
论文作者
论文摘要
近几十年来，由于气候变化，北极海洋经历了巨大的变化。撤退的海冰开放了大片海洋，导致了增强的波浪气候。考虑到北极气候的强烈季节性和快速变化，将非平稳的方法应用于时间变化的统计特性，以研究极值的历史趋势。该分析是基于28年的波浪后广播（从1991年到2018年），该Wavewatch III波模型由ERA5风速强迫。结果表明，极端波高和风速的季节性差异显着，尤其是在博福特和东西伯利亚海洋中的稳健积极趋势，在大约4 \％的风速100年回流中，面积平均值的速度提高，高度高达60％。可以得出结论，极大的波高度的显着增加与海冰撤退基本上是相关的，并且可用于发挥作用的增强提取物。
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the rapid changes to the Arctic climate, a non-stationary approach is applied to time-varying statistical properties to investigate historical trends of extreme values. The analysis is based on a 28-year wave hindcast (from 1991 to 2018) carried out with the WAVEWATCH III wave model forced by ERA5 wind speed. The results show notable seasonal differences and robust positive trends in extreme wave height and wind speed, especially in the Beaufort and East Siberian seas, with increasing rates in areal-average of the 100-year return period of wind speed of approximately 4\% and significant wave height up to 60%. It is concluded that the significant increases in extreme significant wave height are largely associated with sea-ice retreat and the enhanced fetches available for wave generation.
