论文标题
估计和推断多晶体分位数回归
Estimation and Inference for Multi-Kink Quantile Regression
论文作者
论文摘要
多旋转分位数回归(MKQR)模型是分析具有异质条件分布的数据的重要工具,尤其是在响应变量引起的分位数时,由于其对异常值的鲁棒性和响应中的重尾错误。它假设在阈值协变量的域的不同区域中采用不同的线性分位回归形式,但在扭结点仍然是连续的。在本文中,我们研究了MKQR模型中参数估计,扭结点检测和统计推断。我们提出了一种迭代分段的分位回归算法,用于估计回归系数和扭结点的位置。所提出的算法在计算上比网格搜索算法更有效,并且对选择初始值的选择不敏感。建立了渐近特性,例如回归系数和扭结效应的估计值的选择一致性,以理论上证明所提出的方法是合理的。开发了基于部分亚级别的分数测试,以验证是否存在扭结效应。还构建了有关纠结位置参数的测试插入置信区间。进行的密集仿真研究表明,当样本量有限时,提出的方法非常有效。最后,我们将MKQR模型与提议的方法一起应用于有关中国二级工业结构和涉及冈比亚女性三头肌皮肤厚度的数据集的数据集,这导致了一些非常有趣的发现。开发了一个新的R软件包MultiKink来实现所提出的方法。
The Multi-Kink Quantile Regression (MKQR) model is an important tool for analyzing data with heterogeneous conditional distributions, especially when quantiles of response variable are of interest, due to its robustness to outliers and heavy-tailed errors in the response. It assumes different linear quantile regression forms in different regions of the domain of the threshold covariate but are still continuous at kink points. In this paper, we investigate parameter estimation, kink point detection and statistical inference in MKQR models. We propose an iterative segmented quantile regression algorithm for estimating both the regression coefficients and the locations of kink points. The proposed algorithm is much more computationally efficient than the grid search algorithm and not sensitive to the selection of initial values. Asymptotic properties, such as selection consistency of the number of kink points, asymptotic normality of the estimators of both regression coefficients and kink effects, are established to justify the proposed method theoretically. A score test, based on partial subgradients, is developed to verify whether the kink effects exist or not. Test-inversion confidence intervals for kink location parameters are also constructed. Intensive simulation studies conducted show the proposed methods work very well when sample size is finite. Finally, we apply the MKQR models together with the proposed methods to the dataset about secondary industrial structure of China and the dataset about triceps skinfold thickness of Gambian females, which leads to some very interesting findings. A new R package MultiKink is developed to implement the proposed methods.