论文标题

可解释的无训练车辆组件成本估算的AI:一种自上而下的方法

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

论文作者

Moawad, Ayman, Islam, Ehsan, Kim, Namdoo, Vijayagopal, Ram, Rousseau, Aymeric, Wu, Wei Biao

论文摘要

本文的更广泛的野心是普及一种方法,用于将系统输出数量的公平分布到其子系统,同时允许基本的复杂子系统级别的交互。特别是,我们通过利用机器学习和游戏理论的概念组合来提出一种数据驱动的车辆价格建模及其组件价格估计的方法。我们展示了在制造商建议的零售价(MSRP)水平的零售和车辆价格估计的常见拆卸方法和测量方法的替代方案,具有绕过1个收集拆卸数据的不确定性的优势,2)需要进行零售和零售价格(3)的零售价格(3)需要(3)零售价(3)零售价(3)制造成本向零售商生成。这项新颖的练习不仅提供了客户层面的技术的准确定价,而且还显示了制造商,车辆尺寸,班级,市场细分市场和其他因素之间的先验已知,较大的差距。某些技术的价格与同一车辆中存在的其他规格之间也存在明确的协同作用或相互作用。这些结果(毫不奇怪)的结果表明,应仔细检查制造商级成分成本,聚合的旧方法,以及固定且刚性的RPE或ICM调整因子的应用。这些发现是基于由Argonne National Laboratory开发的广泛数据库,其中包括超过64,000辆覆盖MY1990至MY2020的汽车,超过数百个车辆规格。

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems, while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing the uncertainties involved in 1) the gathering of teardown data, 2) the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and 3) the need to perform retail price equivalent (RPE) or indirect cost multiplier (ICM) adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle sizes, classes, market segments, and other factors. There is also clear synergism or interaction between the price of certain technologies and other specifications present in the same vehicle. Those (unsurprising) results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and the application of a flat and rigid RPE or ICM adjustment factor should be carefully examined. The findings are based on an extensive database, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, that includes more than 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 over hundreds of vehicle specs.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源