论文标题
深层卷积神经网络模型,用于快速预测河流洪水
A deep convolutional neural network model for rapid prediction of fluvial flood inundation
论文作者
论文摘要
大多数二维(2D)液压/流体动力模型在计算上仍然对实时应用的要求太高了。在本文中,提出了一种基于深卷积神经网络(CNN)方法的创新建模方法,以快速预测河流洪水淹没。使用2D液压模型(即lisflood-fp)的输出对CNN模型进行训练,以预测水深。然后,使用预训练的模型模拟英国卡莱尔的2005年1月和2015年12月的洪水。 CNN预测与lisflood-fp产生的输出相比有利。通过对支持向量回归(SVR)方法进行基准测试,进一步证实了CNN模型的性能。结果表明,CNN模型的表现要优于SVR。如多个定量评估矩阵所示,CNN模型在捕获洪水泛滥的细胞方面非常准确。重现最大洪水深度的估计误差为2005事件的0〜0.2米,2015年事件的估计误差为0〜0.5米,覆盖了计算域的99%以上。考虑到其简单性,出色的性能和计算效率,提出的CNN方法为实时洪水建模/预测提供了巨大的潜力。
Most of the two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic/hydrodynamic models are still computationally too demanding for real-time applications. In this paper, an innovative modelling approach based on a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) method is presented for rapid prediction of fluvial flood inundation. The CNN model is trained using outputs from a 2D hydraulic model (i.e. LISFLOOD-FP) to predict water depths. The pre-trained model is then applied to simulate the January 2005 and December 2015 floods in Carlisle, UK. The CNN predictions are compared favourably with the outputs produced by LISFLOOD-FP. The performance of the CNN model is further confirmed by benchmarking against a support vector regression (SVR) method. The results show that the CNN model outperforms SVR by a large margin. The CNN model is highly accurate in capturing flooded cells as indicated by several quantitative assessment matrices. The estimated error for reproducing maximum flood depth is 0 ~ 0.2 meters for the 2005 event and 0 ~ 0.5 meters for the 2015 event at over 99% of the cells covering the computational domain. The proposed CNN method offers great potential for real-time flood modelling/forecasting considering its simplicity, superior performance and computational efficiency.