论文标题
莫斯科市和Novosibirsk地区Covid-19的数学建模和预测
Mathematical modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Moscow city and Novosibirsk region
论文作者
论文摘要
本文根据SEIR类型模型制定并解决了Covid-19 Coronavirus感染的数学模型未知参数的鉴定问题,这些信息基于有关检测案例的数量,死亡率,自我隔离系数和针对Moscow City和Novosibirsk区域进行的其他信息,从03.23.23.23.2020.2020.在所使用的模型的框架内,人口分为七个(SEIR-HCD)和五个(SEIR-D)组具有相似特征,并且根据特定区域之间的过渡概率。对SEIR-HCD数学模型进行了可识别性分析,该分析揭示了对其他测量值最低敏感的未知参数。精炼参数的任务减小了,以最大程度地减少相应的目标功能,这些功能是使用随机方法(模拟退火,差异进化,遗传算法等)求解的。对于不同数量的测试数据,开发了莫斯科市和Novosibirsk地区该疾病发展的预后方案,该峰预测了莫斯科的流行病的发展,其中有2天误差为2天和174例检测到的病例,并且对开发模型的适用性进行了分析。
The paper formulates and solves the problem of identification of unknown parameters of mathematical models of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection, based on SEIR type models, based on additional information about the number of detected cases, mortality, self-isolation coefficient and tests performed for the Moscow city and the Novosibirsk Region from 03.23.2020. Within the framework of the models used, the population is divided into seven (SEIR-HCD) and five (SEIR-D) groups with similar characteristics with transition probabilities between groups depending on a specific region. Identifiability analysis of the SEIR-HCD mathematical model was carried out, which revealed the least sensitive unknown parameters to additional measurements. The tasks of refining the parameters are reduced to minimizing the corresponding target functionals, which were solved using stochastic methods (simulating annealing, differential evolution, genetic algorithm, etc.). For a different amount of tested data, a prognostic scenario for the development of the disease in the city of Moscow and the Novosibirsk region was developed, the peak is predicted the development of the epidemic in Moscow with an error of 2 days and 174 detected cases, and an analysis of the applicability of the developed models was carried out.