论文标题
用于排放燃料核素组成的替代建模的高斯工艺
Gaussian Processes for Surrogate Modeling of Discharged Fuel Nuclide Compositions
论文作者
论文摘要
几种应用,例如核取证,核燃料循环模拟和灵敏度分析,需要方法来快速计算各种辐射历史的燃油核素组成。传统上,这是通过使用立方样条(例如立方样条)从核反应堆模拟中预先计算的一组横截面之间的插值来完成的。我们建议使用高斯过程(GP)创建替代模型,不仅提供核素组成,而且还提供了其预测不确定性的梯度和估计。前者对诸如正向和反优化问题等应用程序有用,后者用于不确定性量化应用。为此,我们将基于GP的替代模型性能与基于立方晶状体的插值剂基于基于CANDU 6核反应堆的无限晶格模拟使用Serpent 2代码,将其视为输入参数。此外,我们将各种网格采样方案的性能与基于SOBOL序列的quasirandom采样进行了比较。我们发现,基于GP的模型在预测花费的燃料组合物方面的性能要比基于立方体频道的模型要好得多,尽管需要更长的计算运行时。此外,我们表明预测的核素不确定性是合理准确的。在研究的二维情况下,网格和quasirandom采样可提供相似的结果,而quasirandom抽样将在较高的尺寸案例中更有效。
Several applications such as nuclear forensics, nuclear fuel cycle simulations and sensitivity analysis require methods to quickly compute spent fuel nuclide compositions for various irradiation histories. Traditionally, this has been done by interpolating between one-group cross-sections that have been pre-computed from nuclear reactor simulations for a grid of input parameters, using fits such as Cubic Spline. We propose the use of Gaussian Processes (GP) to create surrogate models, which not only provide nuclide compositions, but also the gradient and estimates of their prediction uncertainty. The former is useful for applications such as forward and inverse optimization problems, the latter for uncertainty quantification applications. For this purpose, we compare GP-based surrogate model performance with Cubic- Spline-based interpolators based on infinite lattice simulations of a CANDU 6 nuclear reactor using the SERPENT 2 code, considering burnup and temperature as input parameters. Additionally, we compare the performance of various grid sampling schemes to quasirandom sampling based on the Sobol sequence. We find that GP-based models perform significantly better in predicting spent fuel compositions than Cubic-Spline-based models, though requiring longer computational runtime. Furthermore, we show that the predicted nuclide uncertainties are reasonably accurate. While in the studied two-dimensional case, grid- and quasirandom sampling provide similar results, quasirandom sampling will be a more effective strategy in higher dimensional cases.