论文标题

估算飓风撤离期间的道路网络可及性:佛罗里达州飓风IRMA的案例研究

Estimating Road Network Accessibility during a Hurricane Evacuation: A Case Study of Hurricane Irma in Florida

论文作者

Zhu, Yi-Jie, Hu, Yujie, Collins, Jennifer M.

论文摘要

了解飓风疏散期间的时空道路网络可及性,通过道路网络到达疏散目的地地点的居民的便利程度是紧急情况管理的关键组成部分。尽管许多研究试图测量道路可及性(在疏散范围或以后),但很少有人考虑过动态疏散需求和飓风的特征。这项研究提出了一个方法学框架来实现这一目标。该方法在每六个小时的时间间隔内首先估计每个县分区中每个家庭车辆数量的疏散需求,即考虑飓风的风半径和轨道。然后,使用最接近的设施分析将撤离人员的路线选择模拟为预定义的撤离目的地。然后,通过耦合估计的疏散需求和路线选择来计算潜在的拥挤指数(PCI),这是一种捕获每个道路细分市场拥挤程度的度量。最后,通过计算连接从子县到指定目的地的撤离人员的相应道路的PCI值的互惠来衡量每个子县的道路可及性。该方法适用于2017年9月飓风IRMA期间的整个佛罗里达州。结果表明,I-75和I-95北行的交通拥堵水平很高,I-95北行沿线的子县遭受了最差的道路可及性。此外,该研究还进行了灵敏度分析,以检查行为响应曲线对可及性结果的不同选择的影响。

Understanding the spatiotemporal road network accessibility during a hurricane evacuation, the level of ease of residents in an area in reaching evacuation destination sites through the road network, is a critical component of emergency management. While many studies have attempted to measure road accessibility (either in the scope of evacuation or beyond), few have considered both dynamic evacuation demand and characteristics of a hurricane. This study proposes a methodological framework to achieve this goal. In an interval of every six hours, the method first estimates the evacuation demand in terms of number of vehicles per household in each county subdivision by considering the hurricane's wind radius and track. The closest facility analysis is then employed to model evacuees' route choices towards the predefined evacuation destinations. The potential crowdedness index (PCI), a metric capturing the level of crowdedness of each road segment, is then computed by coupling the estimated evacuation demand and route choices. Finally, the road accessibility of each sub-county is measured by calculating the reciprocal of the sum of PCI values of corresponding roads connecting evacuees from the sub-county to the designated destinations. The method is applied to the entire state of Florida during Hurricane Irma in September 2017. Results show that I-75 and I-95 northbound have a high level of congestion, and sub-counties along the northbound I-95 suffer from the worst road accessibility. In addition, this research performs a sensitivity analysis for examining the impacts of different choices of behavioral response curves on accessibility results.

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