论文标题
实时真实的经济活动：进入和退出2020年的大流行衰退
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
进入并退出大流行衰退时，我研究了由领先的Nowcast提供的高频实现信号，这是费城联邦储备银行实时生产和发布的业务状况广告指数。我跟踪实时老式信念的演变，并将其与以后的年代顺序进行比较。实时广告暴跌，然后随着其基本的经济指标的摇摆而摇摆，但是广告路径迅速汇聚，表明到了五月中旬，恢复了正向增长。此外，我还表明，每日真实的活动路径与每日Covid-19病例高度相关。最后，我对离开大萧条时提供的实时广告信号进行了比较评估。
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.
