论文标题
掩盖普通人群可能会衰减COVID-19-19
Masking the general population might attenuate COVID-19 outbreaks
论文作者
论文摘要
通过使用两个单独的基于Web的软件，掩盖一般人群对Covid-19流行的影响是通过计算机模拟来估计的，其中一种是针对SARS-COV-2病毒进行了校准的。解决的问题是：1。一般人群的掩盖是否可以限制SARS-COV-2在一个国家的传播？ 2。存在哪种类型的面具，对掩蔽有效地对抗Covid-19必须是多么详尽？ 3。是否必须在流行病中应用面具？ 4。简要讨论面具以及有关面具和SARS-COV-2的一些可能的未来研究问题。结果如下：（1）结果表明，任何类型的掩模，甚至简单的自制掩码都可能有效。即使每个面具的保护作用（此处称为“一面罩保护”）也很低，面具的使用似乎也对降低新患者有效。严格遵守掩模的使用似乎并不是关键。但是，发现将一面罩保护提高到> 50％是有利的。面具似乎能够减少容量的溢出，例如重症监护。由于该软件的默认参数包括另一种干预措施，因此似乎可以结合口罩和其他干预措施。 （2）即使在流行病的后期引入的，口罩似乎确实减少了新病例的数量。但是，早期实施有助于减少案件累积和总数。 （3）模拟表明，有可能在有限时期通过广泛的口罩消除共同爆发。这些模拟的结果令人鼓舞，但不一定代表现实生活中的情况，因此建议现在在不断监测效果和副作用的同时进行口罩的临床试验。
The effect of masking the general population on a COVID-19 epidemic is estimated by computer simulation using two separate state-of-the-art web-based softwares, one of them calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions addressed are these: 1. Can mask use by the general population limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a country? 2. What types of masks exist, and how elaborate must a mask be to be effective against COVID-19? 3. Does the mask have to be applied early in an epidemic? 4. A brief general discussion of masks and some possible future research questions regarding masks and SARS-CoV-2. Results are as follows: (1) The results indicate that any type of mask, even simple home-made ones, may be effective. Masks use seems to have an effect in lowering new patients even the protective effect of each mask (here dubbed "one-mask protection") is low. Strict adherence to mask use does not appear to be critical. However, increasing the one-mask protection to > 50% was found to be advantageous. Masks seemed able to reduce overflow of capacity, e.g. of intensive care. As the default parameters of the software included another intervention, it seems possible to combine mask and other interventions. (2) Masks do seem to reduce the number of new cases even if introduced at a late stage in an epidemic. However, early implementation helps reduce the cumulative and total number of cases. (3) The simulations suggest that it might be possible to eliminate a COVID-19 outbreak by widespread mask use during a limited period. The results from these simulations are encouraging, but do not necessarily represent the real-life situation, so it is suggested that clinical trials of masks are now carried out while continuously monitoring effects and side-effects.
