论文标题
优化的锁定策略，用于遏制Covid-19的传播：南非案例研究
Optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19: A South African case study
论文作者
论文摘要
为了遏制Covid-19的传播，世界上许多政府都以不同程度的严格性实施了分层的锁定。当疾病扩散并减少疾病时，锁定水平通常会增加。预测控制方法用于制定优化的锁定策略来遏制Covid-19的传播。然后将这些策略应用于南非数据。南非案件引起了人们的关注，因为南非政府已定义了五个不同级别的锁定级别，这是一个离散的控制投入。以前开发了Covid-19在南非传播的流行病学模型，并与混合模型预测控制器结合使用，以优化不同政策方案的锁定管理。考虑的方案包括如何将曲线弄平到医疗保健系统可以应对的水平，如何平衡生活和生计，以及对人口对锁定措施的遵守对Covid-19的差异的影响。本文的主要目的是说明应为封闭环反馈控制器确定的最佳锁定级别的策略。
To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A predictive control approach is used to develop optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19. The strategies are then applied to South African data. The South African case is of interest as the South African government has defined five distinct levels of lockdown, which serves as a discrete control input. An epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa was previously developed, and is used in conjunction with a hybrid model predictive controller to optimize lockdown management under different policy scenarios. Scenarios considered include how to flatten the curve to a level that the healthcare system can cope with, how to balance lives and livelihoods, and what impact the compliance of the population to the lockdown measures has on the spread of COVID-19. The main purpose of this paper is to show what the optimal lockdown level should be given the policy that is in place, as determined by the closed-loop feedback controller.
