论文标题
COVID-19的宏观经济SIR模型
A Macroeconomic SIR Model for COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
目前的COVID-19大流行和随后的封锁强调了一个国家的公共卫生与经济健康之间的紧密而微妙的关系。因此，使用先前存在的流行病模型来计算疾病暴发的影响的宏观经济模型对于寻求评估这种危机中最佳行动方案的决策者非常有用。我们开发了COVID-19大流行的SIR模型，该模型明确考虑了牛群的免疫力，依赖行为的传播率，远程工人和锁定的间接外部性。该模型作为退出时间控制问题提出，当人口自然或通过疫苗实现牛群免疫时，锁定结束。一个社会规划师为两个单独的成年人口单独的部分规定了单独的锁定水平：低风险（20-64岁）和高风险（65岁及以上）。这些水平是通过优化目标函数来确定的，该目标函数将宏观经济成本分配给锁定水平和死亡人数。我们发现，通过结束群疫苗后，高危个人能够在疫苗到来之前显着离开锁定，而不会导致死亡率大幅增加。此外，如果我们结合了行为依赖性传播率，该传播率代表了响应于感染水平的响应，个人谨慎，则输出损失和总死亡率都会降低。当低风险个体和高风险个体之间的相互作用较小并且远程工作增加会减少产出损失时，锁定功效会进一步提高。总体而言，我们的模型预测，以牛群免疫的到来结束的封锁，再加上个体动作以减慢病毒的传播，可以将总死亡率降低到无锁定水平的三分之一，同时允许高危个人在疫苗到达之前就离开锁定。
The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic that explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. This model is presented as an exit time control problem where lockdown ends when the population achieves herd immunity, either naturally or via a vaccine. A social planner prescribes separate levels of lockdown for two separate sections of the adult population: low-risk (ages 20-64) and high-risk (ages 65 and over). These levels are determined via optimization of an objective function which assigns a macroeconomic cost to the level of lockdown and the number of deaths. We find that, by ending lockdowns once herd immunity is reached, high-risk individuals are able to leave lockdown significantly before the arrival of a vaccine without causing large increases in mortality. Moreover, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Lockdown efficacy is further increased when there is less interaction between low- and high-risk individuals, and increased remote work decreases output losses. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival.
