论文标题
基于概率预测模型，使用预先警告系统在高速公路上降低交通延迟的交通流量
Traffic Delay Reduction at Highway Diverges Using an Advance Warning System Based on a Probabilistic Prediction Model
论文作者
论文摘要
本文基于概率预测模型提供了针对车辆的机上预警系统，该模型建议他们何时更换车道以按时到达高速公路。该系统基于一个模型，该模型估算使用一个或多个车道更改在道路上达到目标状态的概率。该估计值基于多个与流量相关的参数，例如车辆间距离距离的分布以及与驾驶员相关的参数（如车道更改持续时间）。对于即将到来的差异，预先警告系统使用该模型连续计算到达它的概率，并建议当概率下降到一定阈值以下时，驾驶员更改车道。为了评估拟议系统在减少高速公路分流的交通延迟方面的性能，它被用于四车道高速公路的一部分，以建议车辆何时更换车道。结果表明，使用建议的系统将平均延迟延迟高达6％，最大延迟延迟高达16％，具体取决于交通流量和采用外坡道的车辆比率。
This paper presents an on-board advance warning system for vehicles based on a probabilistic prediction model that advises them on when to change lanes to reach a highway diverge on time. The system is based on a model that estimates the probability of reaching a goal state on the road using one or multiple lane changes. This estimate is based on several traffic-related parameters such as the distribution of inter-vehicle headway distances as well as driver-related parameters like lane change duration. For an upcoming diverge, the advance warning system uses the model to continuously calculate the probability of reaching it and advise the driver to change lanes when the probability dips below a certain threshold. To evaluate the performance of the proposed system in reducing traffic delay at highway diverges, it was used on a segment of a four-lane highway to advise vehicles taking an off-ramp on when to change lanes. Results show that using the proposed system reduces average delay up to 6% and maximum delay up to 16%, depending on traffic flow and the ratio of vehicles taking the off-ramp.
