论文标题
关于历史估计的使用
On the use of historical estimates
论文作者
论文摘要
在当前研究中使用历史估计值在各种应用领域很常见。然而，尽管他们常规使用了与历史估计相关的不确定性，但在分析中很少正确地考虑到。在这种交流中，我们审查了共同的实践，然后提供了一种数学表述和一种原则性方法，用于解决在存在历史数据的情况下绘制推论的问题。详细研究了三种不同的变体；找到并比较了相应的限制分布。考虑到历史数据，未来研究的设计也得到了探索，并与讨论的其他井统计问题的关系。
The use of historical estimates in current studies is common in a wide variety of application areas. Nevertheless, despite their routine use the uncertainty associated with historical estimates is rarely properly accounted for in the analysis. In this communication we review common practices and then provide a mathematical formulation and a principled methodology for addressing the problem of drawing inferences in the presence of historical data. Three distinct variants are investigated in detail; the corresponding limiting distributions are found and compared. The design of future studies, given historical data, is also explored and relations with a variety of other well--studied statistical problems discussed.
