论文标题
蒙特卡洛估计沟通文明之间因果关系的可能性
Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilisations
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们解决了估计银河文明之间因果关系概率的问题。我们对智能生活的起源和演变没有任何假设。我们只是假设一个因果连接的节点网络。这些节点在某种程度上指具有接收和发射电磁信号的能力的智能代理。在这里，我们在银河系的简化草图中提出了网络的三参数统计蒙特卡洛模型。我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟的目标是探索参数空间并分析因果关系的概率。我们发现，在大多数模型中，几十年来进行接触的几率很低，除了一个人口稠密的带有长期文明的星系。我们还发现，因果关系的可能性随着文明的寿命而增加，而不是随着主动文明的数量的显着意义。我们表明，当文明发现所需的通信技术时，就会发生接触的最大可能性。
In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilisations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilisations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilisations more significantly than with the number of active civilisations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilisation discovers the required communication technology.
