论文标题
北卡罗来纳州的COVID-19的未来演变:我们可以使曲线变平吗?
Future Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in North Carolina: Can We Flatten the Curve?
论文作者
论文摘要
6月24日,库珀州长宣布,至少在7月17日之前,北卡罗来纳州将不会进入其重新开放的第三阶段。鉴于最近每天的积极病例和住院的增加,这一决定并不奇怪。但是,鉴于迫使国家重新开放的政治和经济压力,尚不清楚哪些行动将有助于北卡罗来纳州避免最坏情况。我们使用分隔的模型来研究社会距离措施和测试能力的影响,并结合接触跟踪对北卡罗来纳州大流行的演变,直到今年年底。我们发现,回到第1阶段的限制将减缓差异,但是如果州希望继续重新开放或至少在第2阶段或第3阶段中,则需要显着扩大其测试和接触跟踪能力。即使在我们对高接触示踪效果的最佳情况下,该州当前采用的接触示踪剂数量不足。
On June 24th, Governor Cooper announced that North Carolina will not be moving into Phase 3 of its reopening process at least until July 17th. Given the recent increases in daily positive cases and hospitalizations, this decision was not surprising. However, given the political and economic pressures which are forcing the state to reopen, it is not clear what actions will help North Carolina to avoid the worst. We use a compartmentalized model to study the effects of social distancing measures and testing capacity combined with contact tracing on the evolution of the pandemic in North Carolina until the end of the year. We find that going back to restrictions that were in place during Phase 1 will slow down the spread but if the state wants to continue to reopen or at least remain in Phase 2 or Phase 3 it needs to significantly expand its testing and contact tracing capacity. Even under our best-case scenario of high contact tracing effectiveness, the number of contact tracers the state currently employs is inadequate.