论文标题
性别比例升高引起的人口衰老
Population aging caused by rise in sex ratio at birth
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管其历史和生物学稳定性，但在过去的几十年中，出生时的性别比（SRB）在世界各地的某些部分增长。由此产生的人口后果，主要是在性不平衡的情况下，通常有充分的文献记载，通常包括“失踪的女孩/妇女”和“婚姻压迫”。但是，SRB诱导的对人口动态的影响，尤其是其潜在机制，尚未深入探讨。我们旨在调查SRB上升对人口规模，结构和增长的影响，尤其是强调人口衰老的影响。我们提供了一个简单的框架，该框架源自经典稳定的人口模型，以分析SRB上升如何减少人口规模并使人口变老。我们证明，与SRB较低的SRB相比，SRB较高的同类人群的尺寸较小。由于受影响的队列诞生于人口，它们的规模较小将减少总人口规模，从而提高与原始SRB的老年人的比例，并且具有与以前相同的规模。随着与新的SRB的同伙，人口老化的速度随着人口的增加而增加。这项研究补充说，除了生育能力和死亡率外，SRB可能是人口动态的驱动因素，尤其是当它移动到正常生物学水平时。
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically including "missing girls/women" and "marriage squeeze." However, the SRB-induced impact on demographic dynamics, particularly its underlying mechanism, has not been explored in depth. We aim to investigate the impact of the SRB rise on the size, structure, and growth of a population, particularly emphasizing on population aging. We provide a simple framework, derived from classical stable population models, to analyze how the SRB rise can reduce the population size and make the population old. We demonstrate that the cohorts born with a higher SRB are smaller in size than those with a lower SRB. As the affected cohorts are born into the population, their smaller size will reduce the total population size, thereby lifting the fraction of old people that were born with the original SRB and have the same size as before. The resultant population aging speed increases as the cohorts with the new SRB take an increasing share of the population. This study adds that, in addition to fertility and mortality, the SRB can be a driving factor of population dynamics, especially when it moves far above normal biological levels.
