论文标题
从整体学习者中利用不确定性来改善医疗保健中的决策
Exploiting Uncertainties from Ensemble Learners to Improve Decision-Making in Healthcare AI
论文作者
论文摘要
集合学习被广泛应用于机器学习(ML),以提高模型性能并减轻决策风险。在这种方法中,合并了各种学习者的预测以获得联合决策。最近,在文献中探索了各种方法,用于使用集合学习估算决策不确定性。但是,确定哪些指标更适合某些决策应用程序仍然是一项艰巨的任务。在本文中,我们在选择不确定性指标中研究以下关键研究问题:不确定性指标何时胜过另一个?我们通过对合奏学习中的两个常用不确定性指标的严格分析,即集合均值和集合方差来回答这个问题。我们表明,在合奏学习者的温和假设下,合奏平均值对于集成方差而言是决策的不确定性度量。我们通过广泛的案例研究从经验上验证了我们的假设和理论结果:诊断引用的糖尿病性视网膜病。
Ensemble learning is widely applied in Machine Learning (ML) to improve model performance and to mitigate decision risks. In this approach, predictions from a diverse set of learners are combined to obtain a joint decision. Recently, various methods have been explored in literature for estimating decision uncertainties using ensemble learning; however, determining which metrics are a better fit for certain decision-making applications remains a challenging task. In this paper, we study the following key research question in the selection of uncertainty metrics: when does an uncertainty metric outperforms another? We answer this question via a rigorous analysis of two commonly used uncertainty metrics in ensemble learning, namely ensemble mean and ensemble variance. We show that, under mild assumptions on the ensemble learners, ensemble mean is preferable with respect to ensemble variance as an uncertainty metric for decision making. We empirically validate our assumptions and theoretical results via an extensive case study: the diagnosis of referable diabetic retinopathy.